Educated Voters Essential for Byelection, Says DRA
By Carol Volkart
Turnout for city byelections is notoriously low, but the Dunbar Residents’ Association isn’t letting that interfere with its usual practice of bringing candidates and residents together for a chat before voting day.
On March 13, it will host a candidates’ meeting in St. Philip’s Church gym, 3737 West 27th, from 7 p.m. to 9 p.m., in advance of an April 5 byelection to fill two empty city council seats.
“It’s a commitment to the community to make sure they have an opportunity to meet the candidates,” says DRA vice-president Colleen McGuinness. “Voter education is key. And we live in a neighbourhood that is recognized as being a group that votes.”
She’s aware that people tend to ignore byelections. The overall turnout for the city’s last one, in 2017, was 10.99 percent of eligible voters. (Dunbar did much better, as you can see from the City of Vancouver map below.)
“Byelections are generally not that exciting for people, but in this case, it’s absolutely critical that we have an educated population so they can choose some good people for council,” says McGuinness.
The April 5 vote, triggered by the resignations of OneCity’s Christine Boyle and the Green Party’s Adriane Carr, won’t affect the ABC party’s supermajority on council.
But it comes halfway through the current council’s term, and ABC councillors themselves have acknowledged it will serve as a referendum on how they’re doing.
“I have to say I hope that they like what we’re doing,” ABC Coun. Sarah Kirby-Yung said in January at the time council set the byelection in motion. “We’re tackling some of the tough issues. That’s what people asked us to do. That’s not always popular, but in my opinion, it’s paying off.”
Since then, the party has encountered some choppy waters. On Feb. 14, it ejected Coun. Rebecca Bligh from its caucus, saying she was no longer a “core value fit” with the party. A recent integrity commissioner’s report ruled that ABC park board commissioners breached city policy by caucusing behind closed doors. Council is under investigation for the same thing, but the party says it disagrees with the park board findings and will continue the practice. And ABC’s recent plan to halt net new supportive housing construction drew nearly 100 speakers and hundreds of protesters to City Hall on Feb. 26.
Turnout for municipal elections is always an issue. Vancouver’s last general election in 2022 drew only 36.3 percent of eligible voters, but byelections fare worse. And neither councillors nor city staff like holding an election where nobody shows up.
In her resignation speech, Carr pleaded with residents to “please, please come out and vote in the byelection. Byelections are notorious for not having high voter turnout.”
During the January council meeting that set the byelection in motion, ABC councillors also expressed concerns. They questioned why there will be only 25 polling stations this year compared to 50 in 2017, and raised concerns about holding an advance poll during spring break, and about voting access for those who don’t speak English or use QR codes.
They had reasons to worry. In 2017, byelection staff pulled out all the stops for a vote involving both a council seat and nine school-board seats (the province had fired the entire board for failing to produce a balanced budget.)
They allowed voters to cast their ballots at any voting location; they created 50 voting places in Vancouver plus one at UBC/UEL on general voting day; they held two days of advance voting and allowed voting by mail, and also did a “robust promotional campaign” across multiple channels and demographics.
But alas, all that “significant” effort led to only a 10.99 percent turnout, far short of the hoped-for 20 percent, according to a follow-up report to council. Sadly, the report noted, “a review of other municipal byelections, including the Vancouver byelection held in 1992, indicate that a 10 percent turnout is typical for a byelection.”
Dunbar residents, however, can hold their heads up by comparison.
The 2017 byelection saw a turnout in Dunbar Southlands of 18.21 percent, second only to West Point Grey, with 18.33 percent. Third highest was Grandview Woodlands, with 17.84 percent, while the lowest turnout was in Renfrew Collingwood at 4.79 percent.
A number of factors go together to produce higher voter turnouts in areas like ours, UBC political scientist Stewart Prest said in an email responding to questions about voting patterns in Dunbar.
“Generally, people are more likely to vote if they have a higher sociopolitical status. Older voters tend to vote more than younger voters as well,” he wrote. “People who believe their vote matters are also more likely to vote than those who think their vote doesn’t really make a difference (a self-fulfilling prophecy, ultimately!)” Plus, he says, “people with long tenure in a particular neighbourhood are more likely to take part in local elections in particular.”
He says the 2017 turnout is likely a “good baseline” for this year’s, but nothing is certain. People in Dunbar and Point Grey (and elsewhere) were pretty annoyed with the city in 2017, “which is another motivator to vote,” he says. But he doesn’t get a sense that it’s reached that kind of pitch yet.
“While there are grumblings about ABC’s direction, in my (admittedly subjective) view they don’t seem to be crystallizing into concrete opposition just yet, and I don’t know that Dunbar/Point Grey in particular would be hotbeds of dissent given that both neighbourhoods were strong supporters of ABC last time around, if I remember correctly,” he wrote, adding they “historically tend to lean to the right relative to other neighbourhoods.”
Another discouraging factor: The stakes are low. “ABC’s power in no way hangs in the balance here—something that may tend to depress the vote even in places like Dunbar/ Point Grey.”
However, he says, lower turnout can increase unpredictability. “A well-organized and funded party like ABC that can get its own vote out can do well, but it also opens the door to a motivated opposition group IF it crystallizes into a clear alternative. That’s something that as far as I can tell isn’t happening so far, but still could.”
Following is a list of the candidates invited to the DRA meeting so far. The Greens, OneCity and COPE have chosen to run only one candidate each, saying they want to avoid splitting the left-leaning vote. As of Feb. 28, all except the COPE and ABC candidates had confirmed their attendance.
• Colleen Hardwick and Theodore Abbott, for TEAM for a Livable Vancouver
Hardwick, who has a background in urban geography and the film industry, served on council from 2018 to 2022 and came in third when she ran as TEAM’s mayoral candidate in the 2022 civic election. Abbott is a community organizer and recent Capilano University graduate whose studies included housing policy and land use.
• Lucy Maloney, for OneCity
Maloney is a road-safety advocate who has an MBA, a law degree, and a career in environmental law in Australia before coming to Vancouver. She lives in the West End.
• Annette Reilly, for the Green Party of Vancouver
Reilly is described in a party news release as “an award-winning filmmaker, advocate and dedicated community leader” who has been a “passionate advocate for social justice, gender equity and environmental sustainability.” Raised in Alberta, she has been in Vancouver since 1995.
• Sean Orr, for the Coalition of Progressive Electors
Orr, who describes himself on X as a “musician, blogger, dishwasher, socialist,” ran for the Vote Socialist Vancouver party in the 2022 civic election.
• Ralph Kaisers and Jaime Stein, for ABC
Kaisers, a sergeant with the Vancouver Police Department, is president of the Vancouver Police Union and the BC Police Association. Stein is described in an ABC news release as “a passionate leader and community builder” with a distinguished career in the tech industry.
There will be a polling station at the Dunbar Community Centre on general voting day April 5, but voters can cast their ballots at any of the 25 polling stations around the city.
Leading up to April 5, mail-in ballot packages for eligible voters will be available starting March 18. Advance voting will be on March 26 and April 1, at city hall only, from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.
The council report with byelection details is here.